New French PM signals greater focus on African migration

In a turn of events reminiscent of an African electoral crisis, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed political veteran and former EU negotiator Michel Barnier as prime minister on 5 September. Barnier, aged 73, becomes the oldest prime minister of France’s Fifth Republic, replacing its youngest, Gabriel Attal, aged 35, disappointing those who had hoped for a rejuvenation of the political system. In an era when young leaders – whether elected presidents or coup plotters – are taking power across Africa, this contrast has dimmed hopes for France to rethink its relationship with the continent.

Barnier’s appointment comes in the wake of a period of political instability in France. In June 2024, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally secured a third of France’s seats in the European Parliament. Rather than waiting two more years to finish his second term, President Macron called for a snap legislative election in France, hoping to rally voters against the far right. However, his gamble backfired following polling in June and July. Following a succession of political upheavals where foreign policy issues – even less African matters – did not attract much public attention, a left-wing coalition called the New Popular Front (NFP) won a relative majority, albeit insufficient to form a ruling coalition.

Migration to drive Barnier’s African policy

After consulting with political actors, Macron defied the NFP by appointing Barnier, a member of the Gaullist Republicans party that placed fifth in the election. Known outside France for his role as lead EU negotiator for Brexit, Macron may be hoping that Barnier’s apparent ability to forge consensus across the political aisle will enable him to form a governing majority. His views are however far from consensual, from a conservative stance on societal issues such as abortion and LGBTQ rights, to a hardline posture on immigration. 

Barnier proposed a temporary ban on migration when he unsuccessfully campaigned to become the Republicans candidate for the French presidency in 2021. Such xenophobic instincts are likely to inform how Barnier approaches France’s African policy. During his short tenure as Minister of Foreign Affairs (2004-2005), Barnier outlined a vision of development assistance to Africa centred on preventing migration to Europe. His stance is thus aligned with the latest policies emerging across Europe – from Italy’s Mattei Plan to Denmark’s New Africa Strategy – which place the fight against irregular migration as a key foreign policy objective, in a bid to address domestic populist concerns. 

One African issue where Michel Barnier will need to adjust is the status of Western Sahara. Aligned with a longstanding French and European position, Barnier had maintained his support for the autonomy of the territory, which remains occupied by Morocco, contrary to UN decolonisation efforts. However, over the past year, Macron has shifted France’s position, paving the way for a recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Morocco’s position on the migration route from Western Africa – the kingdom claimed to have prevented 45,000 illegal crossings since the beginning of the year – and the failure of Macron’s reconciliation effort with Algeria have motivated this political shift, which Barnier is unlikely to challenge.

Shattered hopes for the French left

In the short-term, however, Macron and Barnier will have to form a government and contend with a legitimate challenge from the French left. In France, it is customary for a new prime minister to outline his/her agenda in a statement of government policy, which is typically followed by a vote of confidence. Even if Barnier breaks with precedent, he will face the constant risk of a censorship motion if the new government fails to satisfy MPs. The NFP is set to remain a vocal critic, having characterised Barnier’s appointment as a hijacking of democracy, maintaining that a left-wing prime minister should have been appointed in recognition of the fact its coalition won the most seats. Across the political aisle, the NFP – and especially its most radical component, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (or France Unbowed) – was the most likely to have proposed a radical overhaul of France’s Africa Policy. 

La France Insoumise has a long history of criticising France’s perceived “imperialist” relationship with Africa, denouncing everything from military interventions to the close ties between right-wing political figures and French corporations such as Bolloré and Bouygues. These critiques are part of a broader far-left tradition that seeks to dismantle the influence France has historically exerted over its former colonies, especially where power has been acquired through economic domination or military dependence. The situation in Guinea has notably attracted the attention of left-wing politicians and media, which are critical of Macron’s complacent attitude towards the junta, despite delays to the political transition and growing concerns about forced disappearance of opponents.

Mélenchon’s party has gone beyond rhetoric by forging relationships with African leaders and opposition figures who share its anti-imperialist vision. One notable example is Mélenchon’s partnership with Senegalese opposition leader-turned-prime minister Ousmane Sonko. Both men, known for their fiery rhetoric and populist leanings, held a joint conference at Dakar’s Cheikh Anta Diop University in May, emphasising their common struggle against “neocolonialism” in Africa. 

Emerging contradictions on societal issues

The proximity between the French left and its Pan-Africanist counterparts, however, hit a stumbling block over LGBTQ rights, which remain an anathema for Sonko’s socially conservative PASTEF party. Despite stating that he would not try to impose this view in Africa, Mélenchon defended gay marriage and was booed by the Senegalese audience. Thus, Mélenchon fell into the same trap as Macron and other French politicians, who have been criticised for their attempts to impose “universal” values on the continent. 

As African nations experience political shifts, many leaders are calling for less paternalistic relationships with France, favouring greater autonomy in their domestic affairs. For some, a reduced French presence is appealing, as it could mean less pressure on issues such as human rights, women’s rights, and the protection of sexual minorities. These leaders see a less involved France as an opportunity to pursue policies better aligned with their national interests, without the constraints of European values and political priorities. 

Ironically, the conservative but pragmatic Prime Minister Barnier, who views Africa through the lens of cooperation on challenges such as migration and energy rather than seeking to promote an ideology or principles, may actually be a more suitable partner for some African governments than a left-wing government with a more opinionated stance on complex societal issues. Barnier’s pick as foreign affairs minister will be telling, but it will soon become clear whether he adopts a pragmatic approach akin to that of France’s geopolitical rivals, such as China, or falls into the same trap as Macron and Mélenchon.