Ethiopia’s 2026 electoral dilemma

As Ethiopia prepares for its seventh general election in June 2026, the poll is being framed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as the country’s “best” to date, and a signal of improved political order and a recovering investment climate. This narrative masks the realities on the ground. Far from consolidating democracy, the 2026 election is shaping up to be a turbulent replay of the flawed 2021 vote, this time with higher stakes and more instability.

The ruling Prosperity Party (PP) secured a landslide victory in 2021 because, in large swathes of the country, competitive voting was either physically impossible or politically managed. The result is still visible today: roughly one-fifth of seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives remain vacant. Rather than breaking from this precedent, the federal government is heading into a deeper crisis. Three fundamental failures indicate that Ethiopia is unprepared to hold a credible, national poll: a worsening security crisis, an incapacitated electoral board, and a fragile economy.

Security in crisis

In 2021, no voting took place in Tigray due to the conflict. Meanwhile, polling was delayed or cancelled in parts of Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Somali regional states due to insecurity and logistical failures. The result was a parliament that legally represented the country but in practice excluded millions of citizens.

Heading into 2026, conflict threatens to derail the vote across multiple states. While the war in Tigray officially ended in 2022, the region remains in a fragile political limbo. The TPLF has fractured into various factions and its party license is yet to be renewed. A stalled peace agreement and the delayed return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) have deepened mistrust between local communities and federal institutions. Meanwhile, Tigray’s volatility and conflict-damaged infrastructure undermine even basic conditions for voting.

More critically, the Amhara region – the country’s second-most populous state – has been the epicentre of an active insurgency by the Fano militia since April 2023. This is a grassroots armed movement embedded in rural communities, which makes state administration and ballot distribution logistically impossible. 

In Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)’s insurgency will cross the eight-year mark in April 2026. The conflict has been marked by civilian killings and ransom kidnappings that have rendered several zones insecure, including East and West Wollega, Kellem Wollega, and Horo Guduru Wollega. The neighbouring Somali Region has also witnessed renewed inter-communal violence between the Oromo and Somali communities along border woredas (districts).

By pushing forward with nationwide elections despite these challenges, the government risks replicating the 2021 dynamic on a larger scale. The administration of a “national” poll that is effectively restricted to the capital and regions not facing armed conflict will only further deepen the grievances of excluded populations.

Logistics and legitimacy

The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) faces a crisis of both logistics and legitimacy that mirrors its 2021 struggles. Despite being led by the respected former opposition leader and judge Birtukan Mideksa, the NEBE was forced to postpone polls twice in 2021 due to logistical failures and security concerns. The electoral body struggled to register internally displaced persons (IDPs) and could not guarantee the safety of its staff in conflict-affected areas.

The NEBE has set its sights higher for 2026, with digital registration of polling stations and a technology-based voter and candidate registration platform. However, this ignores the reality of infrastructure destruction in conflict-affected areas, millions of IDPs, and the absence of a national census since 2007. While the Fayda national ID programme is being rolled out rapidly, it remains unclear whether it can meaningfully offset these structural gaps ahead of the vote. 

Furthermore, the board’s political independence remains under scrutiny. In 2021, opposition parties like the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) boycotted the vote, citing the imprisonment of their leaders and political repression. Four years later, these parties continue to raise the same concerns, while navigating the legal pressure to participate, as failure to do so in two consecutive elections will nullify their registration. 

Without a comprehensive ceasefire and negotiated settlements between the federal government and various armed groups, the NEBE risks administering a contest where the only viable participant is the incumbent.

The economics

The 2021 election took place before the full economic devastation of the northern war had set in. Today, Ethiopia is grappling with the hangover of that conflict: an estimated USD 80 billion loss in Tigray alone, a foreign exchange crisis that forced a painful currency devaluation, and stalled debt restructuring negotiations under the G20 Common Framework.

In 2021, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed could still campaign on the promise of medemer (synergy) and future prosperity. Today, Abiy’s pledge to undertake constructive dialogue rings hollow. Voters face a severe cost-of-living crisis and the frustration of perceived state neglect, with little progress on transitional justice or the long-awaited national dialogue. These economic and political frustrations feed directly into the security crisis, with high youth unemployment, labour strikes, and civil unrest driving recruitment into insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia. An election held under these conditions risks further undermining the state’s legitimacy just as it asks voters to renew its mandate.

The road to 2026

The 2021 election was a demonstration that holding a vote without first securing peace results in a hollow victory. As June 2026 approaches, Ethiopia risks compounding that error. By prioritising the performance of an election over the preconditions for one  – security, inclusion, and consensus – the government is setting the stage for a poll that will struggle to confer legitimacy or unify the nation.